Here it is, the Fourth of July holiday, and I've spent a considerable part of the morning (and then later this afternoon) poring over Mexican election figures, trying to make some sense out of a political landscape that I don't quite understand. It beats going out to the local paintball spots.
Assuming the numbers reported thus far are correct (a big assumption...), it looks like Felipe Calderón [Partido Acción Nacional (PAN)] was elected president of Mexico, although just barely. With more than 98% of the votes counted, he is reported to have received 14,027,214 votes, against 13,624,506 for his closest opponent, Andrés Manuel López Obrador [Democratic Revolution Party (PRD)]. That 402,708 vote spread makes for a very, very contentious Mexican political scene.
Here's what I've decided to be true...or plausible...about the Mexican election, based on information I've gathered from media reports (some in Spanish...I'm so proud of laboriously making my way through them like a first-grader learning to read) and the Intituto Electoral Federal (courtesy of the International Herald).
The election results revealed a distinct "Red State-Blue State" dynamic going on in Mexico. All of the northern border states (on the U.S. border) are in the right-leaning Calderón camp, at least at the presidential level. Here is a rundown:
Mexican 'Red' States
Tamaulipas, which runs along the Texas border from Brownsville to Nuevo Laredo, cast 42% of its votes for Calderón, versus 27% for López Obrador and 26% for Roberto Madrazo, the PRI (Partido Revolucionario Institucional) candidate.
Nuevo Leon (which has a tiny stretch of common border with Texas), was overwhelmingly in favor of Calderón with 50% of votes; Madrazo came in second with 28% and 16% went to López Obrador.
Coahuila favored Calderón with 44% of the votes, Madrazo captured 26%, and López Obrador got 25%.
Chihuahua, the largest Mexican state, which borders Texas and New Mexico on the north, gave Calderón 47% of votes, against 29% for Madrazo and 19% for López Obrador.
Sonora favored Calderón with a majority of 51%; 26% went for López Obrador and 19% for Madrazo.
The last U.S.-bordering state, Baja California, gave 48% to Calderón, 24% to Mexican 'Red' States, and 22% to Madrazo.
The other 'Red' states were Puebla (south central), Querétaro (central), San Luis Potosi (central), Guanajuato (central), Aguascalientes (central), Jalisco (south central), Colima (south), Sinaloa (western central), and Durango (central). A 'holdout' southern state on the Gulf of Mexico side was Yucatan, which gave 47% to
Calderón and only 17% to López Obrador.
Mexican 'Blue' States
López Obrador was the strongest candidate in most of the Yucatan penninsula, including Quintana Roo, Campeche, and Tabasco. He also captured the highest percentage of votes in Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Morelos, Mexico (state), Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Distrito Federal (Mexico City), Zacatecas, Guerrero, Nayarit, Michoacán and Baja California Sur.
I am better able to analzye if I can see a graphic representation of something like I have just described, but I will try without it. It appears to me that Mexico's political sensibilities are effectively divided into almost north versus south groups, with some minor discrepencies. Jalisco is a major business center, which probably explains the pro-Calderón attitudes there. I would have expected the same in Mexico, but López Obrador was mayor of Mexico City and was, from what I gather, very popular. His popularity and recognition in the city and environs may explain how the business community there did not manage to overcome.
It seems to me that Mexico is experiencing something similar to what the U.S. is experiencing and has experienced with the resurrection of the Republican party in the 1990s. While there was certainly rancor between the parties when the Democrats were in power, the Democrats did not attempt to demonize Republicans during that time. Once Republicans seized control of the Senate and the House and then, stole the presidency, they immediately began to demonize (literally) Democrats and they began to use religion as a weapon. That has turned the U.S. into a deeply divided country whose two major factions have deep distrust of one another. It has moved beyond politics in to daily life. I sense the same thing is happening, perhaps on a larger scale in Mexico. Whoever is ultimately declared the winner, both he and his primary opponent must be willing to overlook their personal distastes and deal with the other. The fractures that this election have revealed in Mexican society have the capacity to irreparably rupture the social and political fabric of the country if care is not given by all leaders, elected and unelected, to work toward healings rifts and toward making the country's institutions instruments to bring justice to everyone.
OK, I'm off the soapbox for the moment.
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